SUCCESS, RISK AND CHALLENGES OF THE EXPORT OF NATURAL RUBBER LATEX PRODUCTS IN THAILAND, INDONESIA, MALAYSIA AND VIETNAM: EX-POST FORECAST SIMULATION APPROACH

Abstract

The objective of this research paper is to investigate the success, risk, and challenges of the export rubber latex products in the ASEAN rubber producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. The ex-post forecast simulation approach was tested and predicted the export of NR latex products (volume) of each country. Research methods were used as a Vector Error Correction Method (VECM), co-integration equation, hypothesis testing, and ex-post forecast simulation. Monthly data was used from Jan 2008 to Dec 2016 and the calculation of ex-post simulation to predict the NR export volume from July 2016 to Dec 2016. The result shows that export price and production are the success factors but the exchange rate is the risk and challenge for the export model. Therefore, the results would help the governments and organizations to distribute their NR latex products for wisely export and provide some benefit of business to the rubber industries.